Took a while for me to get back to this thread to post about Chnese demographics. We tend to think that China has an endless supply of people but even a nation with a billion and couple hundred million can get themselves sideways, especially when the heavy hand of the government tells you how many kids to have. The Chinese gov has had a policy for 30+ years of one child per family. Although not totally effective, especialy in the rural areas, this policy has skewed the population cohorts. China, along with the developed world, is getting older and young people to enter the work force, especially in manufacturing, is decreasing.
The important two labor cohorts of people in their 20s will decrease in size. Between 2016 and 2026 the Chinese population in their 20s will decrease by about a quarter, 200 million to 150 million. The 20-24 cohort it will come quicker and be more drastic, a drop of nearly 50% from 125 million down to 68. So "the abundance of young, inexpensive labor is soon to be history". If we're still here in 20-30 years, we may see Chinese companies do what U.S., Euro, and Japnaense corporation have done, seek out other regions were labor is cheaper. Although this may be easier said than done. Where are the regions that now have a lot of kids and high birthrates? Sub-Sharan Africia, the Middle East-SW Asia, and Andean S. America/Central America. Most of these places don't have the needed infrasturture and/or culture for large scale manufacturing, although the infrastruture may come if enough money is pumped in from Big Buck Chucks companies looking for cheap bodies in factories. Or maybe SE Asia will be the new China. Manufcaturing is already there in several of those nations...
Originally Posted by DakotaRog
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