Alis dropped quickly lately, some smelters are up for sale & it seems theres gonna be a bit of a glut for a while.
(I expect 10 years...!!)
Ali's $ is based on power prices.
Aluminias cheap & offset by the iron they get out of the ground along with it.
ie, they want more iron as the price is high, so they dig up more. Along with the iron, they get alumina, which gets processed into aluminum.
Now.
Considering the amount of ali being smelted from new, the smelters that HAVE to run 24hrs a day even if they don't make $ from it & the extra Ali thats getting into the market because scrappers scrap everything & end up with lots of ali (Of my scrapmetal, about 40% of its Ali) being recycled.
The price is gonna stay low for a long time.
Our variations in the Ali $ is mostly the $ exchange rates as Ali's brought & sold in US$.
Our NZ$ weakens against the US$ & our Ali price goes up.
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