Copper Analysis 2012-09-17

Well copper has broken out of this wedge with strength. She now is coming up to an area of resistance, but if she hangs out here for a while that is quite alright. This brings prices at the yards to over $3, much better. The circle marks are to show what may happen. The first one is like a head fake and came crashing down. Hopefully, she doesn't do that again. Only time will tell.



Happy Scrapping.

Hey JBravo, got a question? Do you think this phenomenon has anything to do with the fact that "temporary" scrappers are very active in the summer, but not so active in the winter months. I call them temporary because a lot of people that try this business, scrapping or metal recycling, find out the work is not necessarily that easy and don't last past the "comfortable" summer months. Just a thought I had when I was doing some research...if you look at the graph you show, this would follow every year in the months of June, July, and August (no matter where the average prices are for the market (globally). So, my premise is when supply is larger (summer). demand goes down and along with price. Just a thought.

.if you look at the graph you show, this would follow every year in the months of June, July, and August (no matter where the average prices are for the market (globally). So, my premise is when supply is larger (summer). demand goes down and along with price. Just a thought.

Mr. Mechanic are you trying to tell me there's no rhyme or reason to the way metal market prices fluctuate? Point taken.

Originally Posted by NorthwoodsScrapper

I suspect the recent run up in commodities pricing is due to the Fed's announcement of more quantitative easing. Many investors move into hard assets like gold, silver and copper as a hedge against a drop in the value of the US $. I'm probably completely wrong, but that's what I think has happened.

Probably as good an explanation as any.

I agree with Northwoods. You would think that a cyclical, seasonal change with supply and demand would effect price, but there are larger forces in the picture. The announcement of QE3 (welfare for the rich), means the dollar is going to continue to decrease in value. If you also have a normal paying job, you just got a demotion. Your salary may stay the same, but what about all your expenses, Food, Gas, Etc. Inflation is the hidden tax. You could say it's good for the government. They are deep in debt, but those earlier loans with the earlier dollars are now not worth as much since the dollar is less valuable. If you follow real estate investors, such as Trump or better yet Robert Kyosaki from Rich Dad Poor Dad, they are taking out more and more loans with little interest, not much down, and collecting their rents. They are getting richer with debt. Rich are getting richer, poor getting poorer. Ain't life grand?

Commodity pricing has more to do with supply and demand than anything else, and the value of the dollar.

You can see supply (inventory) has been going down, that will cause the price of a commodity to go up.

Mabye I'm crazy but I have been hoarding CRT monitors.........I have around 300............I figure it's a good investment in the copper market..........My dad said I'm crazy like a fox whatever that means (LOL)

Mr. Mechanic are you trying to tell me there's no rhyme or reason to the way metal market prices fluctuate? Point taken.

See some similarities there?? That's what controls copper to some extent. The stock market, just like it controls gold and silver.

i also see copper as a leading indicator. the dow has made higher highs, whereas copper has not. is that a sign of the future for the dow? or is copper just lagging behind? i see it as, copper is actually worth something more than just futures trading speculators. it is not pumped full of fudged accounting to meet shareholders expectations. if there is a demand for it, price rises. and the opposite, if there is too much supply, price declines.

back to the dow making higher highs, there is more demand for stocks, than the commodity of copper. the stock market is manipulated by wall street. check out the price of the s&p at the bottom of march 2009...666. the bottom for copper was in december of 2008. hmmm!? so copper was already heading up in march as stocks were finally making their bottom.

just my $0.02. if i really knew stocks and commodities, i probably wouldn't bother with scrapping tvs for their copper.