Prices are falling fast for next months ferrous market - Page 3

If you look at steel futures as one indicator, prices appear to have bottomed and may have slight uptick in December. China projected steel usage growth rate for next year was halved back in September to something like 2% growth, which for China is virtually no growth. But then demand from India is supposed to be headed upward. US scrap inventory was high, but some domestic yards saw incoming scrap drop 20% in September, due partly to the price drop but also seasonal. So supply will be down a bit, which helps us. So who knows.

Unless something changes, ferrous scrap prices could very well be more or less flat until September 2013. But then again, if I were better at reading economic indicators, I wouldn't be typing this right now.

Originally Posted by taterjuice

Whys that ?

Because right now I would be retired from my day job, and I would be in my garage smashing vacuum cleaners

I am hearing sideways right now with a slight (hopeful) uptick of $5-$10. However, this was mine (and a good majority of others) prediction in mid-September. The market still looks stagnant for a few months.

I have heard up 0-20 dollars. I think we hit the bottom but who knows. The market has been so messed up over the last 6 months that its hard to predict whats going to happen. It could go down but I doubt it. Mills have to be sitting on such a low inventory that they have to buy next month in large quantities or face running out of material to make steel of course there order books are a mess to so who knows which way its gonna go.

Slowing Chinese economy hits U.S. manufacturers Slowing Chinese economy hits U.S. manufacturers | Business & Technology | The Seattle Times

Portland’s Schnitzer Steel Industries, one of the nation’s biggest metal recyclers, is cutting 300 jobs, or 7  percent of its work force, as scrap exports to China plunge.

Exports of steel and iron scrap — among the top products exported to China from the United States — are down 53 percent this year from the comparable period in 2011, according to the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, a trade group.

Prices are down roughly 30 percent as a result, said Joel Denbo, chief executive at Tennessee Valley Recycling in Decatur, Ala. Denbo’s family founded the company 105 years ago, and he’s struggling to avoid layoffs among his work force of 175.

Gasoline dropped about from 359 to 341 a gallon this week here in Fl. Get ready for the steel plunge.

In ontario Canada The Market is Less than 50% of what we got a month ago on shred and #1 Melt.

A month ago we got Like $285 ton on shred and $358 on #1 heavy melt White goods was $160

Now Took in a Load today , Got $128 / ton for Shred and Heavy Melt is $130/ton White Goods now $40 ton

And was told by the End of the Month , Likley pay $0 for White Goods , $65 ton for Shred and $80 for #1 melt

I got a fax from weitsmans - upstate shredding on NY up 37$GT on all grades. I wouldnt expect this price increase to last forever.

Upstate shredding is just hedging the market. If it goes up by that much I will be surprised but then again who knows he could already commitments for next month but its still way to early to tell the numbers other then an educated guess. Its has to go north though. The mills have to be starving right now for scrap.

In response to what street sweeper said about SS in portland. First off they lost money in the last quarter and are just looking to cut the fat. They cut there outlook for the rest of the year. They are just trying to see if they can make money with less people. Simple math. 7.4 percent growth for china is still amazing. China also has so much over capacity in there steel sector. I think there PMI next month in china will be back over 50 and people will think this is a was just an anomaly. Remember one or two months of bad news does not define a year in the scrap industry. You have to look at all 12 months. Think towards the future.

Out here on the west coast the yard I've gone to this summer has been like a ghost town and the yard worker said offshore demand has 'dried up' . They are down on the waterway where they load 10,000 ton loads on barges and haven't seen any barges getting loaded. There are a couple really nice piles 50' high sitting there just not moving.

Originally Posted by street_sweeper

Out here on the west coast the yard I've gone to this summer has been like a ghost town and the yard worker said offshore demand has 'dried up' . They are down on the waterway where they load 10,000 ton loads on barges and haven't seen any barges getting loaded. There are a couple really nice piles 50' high sitting there just not moving.

China probably owns so many iron ore mines it no longer needs(or wants) to buy it here, until things get so tight we're willing to give it away, just to get rid of it. I noticed a sign on a yard near here lately says "NOT buying Tin/Iron as of NOV 1 Until Further Notice"

Up up and away next month. I was told today look for prices to recover what they lost last month. Welcome to the roller coaster ride its up its down its up. Winter is fast approaching and prices should continue to climb. I can't see them declining much if at all over the next few months. There might be a big bump again in December but its to far off to tell or even guess whats gonna happen. Just a gut feeling. Yards are empty and need to restocked with scrap. Mills are the same way right now.

I am also starting to hear a murmur that our market will almost assuredly make a slight to moderate recovery next month. Keep your fingers crossed!

Moving weight again this month back to September prices well almost Sept. but close enough. CHOOOOO CHOOOOO. Smoking locomotives the last few weeks. There making there last stop. I read the report of the last train I cut up and it said it was all over Mexico. Crazy how many miles they put on these things!!!

why are they scrapping perfectly good locomotives ?