Originally Posted by
Tcgs
Noble,
What I meant by a Hot new commodity is, what if something unusual like polyester, just found a new use as an alternative fuel source, and everyone is scrapping polyester shirts at $25 a lb. Obviously that is not the case as I know it. But maybe you will know how to respond to that.
I see, so what you are saying is a new need for a certain type of scrap that makes that particular scrap worth more?
Simply stated, unless we are doing the research and development on those new ways to use scrap, we have to wait around for someone else to develop those new and novel ways. I am big on taking a material all the way from a recycled good to retail product. I currently return many of my solutions I use in refining, back into some useful process, and on a totally different level I am purchasing material to recover and refine precious metals, and then turning them into useful products like copper and silver plated door knobs that reduce, by as much as 25% the transfer of certain types of bacteria, like MRSA. As well I am developing a precious metal clay with different alloys all derived from recycled precious metals so that an artist or even a home hobbyist can form the clay into whatever form them desire, and fire it in an oven at a lower than melt temperature so that it produces a piece of fused metal in whatever shape it was formed, just exactly as a jeweler might using other methods. I know another refiner who is developing 3D printing powders of precious metals, and still other people developing other products. But I don't think these concepts are going to create enough demand for precious metals to make the scrap worth more, so I'm not sure what other things may or may not.
I think it far more likely that it becomes more and more difficult to extract precious metals out of the earth, and thus drives prices up in that fashion. Iron is found almost everywhere on earth in varying amounts so I don't think that will ever become a problem, but other metals that are far more rare, that are created only during a super nova of a sun, those metals will surely become more difficult to obtain, and thus go up in price as they become harder to obtain.
I am totally baffled by silver, and this might be the best example yet to explain my point about metals not being affected by novel products. Silver is far more useful than gold, it's used at a 1/1 ratio currently in industry, and ways of using it are being discovered at a much faster rate than uses for other precious metals. Check out the silver institute for the numbers:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/
There is also a lot less silver in the world than other metals, yet recently it has been incorporated into clothing for example, to reduce the need for deodorants because silver kills the bacteria that causes the smell. And once incorporated into clothing, it's almost impossible to recover again. There are many examples of this with silver, yet the prices keep falling. A clear sign that there is something else going on that is causing the fall in silver as a commodity.
I can say this with a fair amount of certainty. As it becomes more and more difficult to obtain the raw materials that are needed, on the open market because of supply and demand, more and more people are going to turn to scrapping or recycling as a means to supply it. Take metals for example, when I was a kid I used to go with my father to the dumps, I remember seeing copper all over the place. Matter of fact, I built my first forth made with materials we were given by construction workers at the construction site that was going on right across the street from my house when I was a kid, because all those items were not worth much, and were plentiful. Now days you get arrested for removing a cinder block from a construction site, and nobody throws copper away at the junk yard.
I think what might be far more likely though, rather than some new use for scrap, I think it far more likely that people start buying up on garbage dumps and get licensed to mine them for the scrap they contain, the wood pulp, the metals, and other materials.
Scott
Tcgs 
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