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I haven't really taken in anything in for about 6 months and none of my mini van loads of light steel since last fall. Most of last year, at least summer and early fall, the sole steel yard in my metro was doing about $75-80 a ton. I called about 10 days ago and nearly fell off my chair when the guy said $20 a ton!! Wow, about a 75% drop in 7 1/2 months. What gives...? At that price, I'll be reorganizing what little steel I have and waiting for a better price.
I think everybody is feeling about the same way Rog. Prices aren't very good right now. Possible causes that come to mind.
1: The full impact of China's National Sword policy.
2: Trade tariffs
3: Little or no demand for steel at the moment. ( Supply & demand )
4: Stable / somewhat lower energy costs. ( Gasoline)
5: A stronger dollar exerting downward pressure on commodities.
Anyway ... it makes you shake your head and wonder if it's worth bothering with sometimes.
What we need is a honkin' good war in the Middle East, reckless economic policy, and a 1970's style Oil Embargo to drive scrap prices through the roof. >:)
Yeah, but #4 & 5 were in place already last summer and fall and steel price was fairly stable. Non-ferrous is down around here (copper just started going down recently) but much less of a hit, (ok aluminum down about 35% since early 2018 or so). I know that non-ferrous and steel don't line up the same but some of the same factors should be in play. Supposedly the economy is roaring so you'd think demand within the country would be up. Maybe it just shows how much of USA scrap was heading to Chicom land on a regular basis for the last decade or so...
Welcome to the club. I expect prices to drop again around here this month.Quote:
Originally Posted by DakotaRog
P76- Because I wasn't tracking steel since early last Nov, when did the price collapse or has it been a slow but steady decline?
It's a hard call on 4 & 5 from my perspective. I'm mostly going by what i see here in my own little world. It might not reflect the bigger picture.Quote:
Originally Posted by DakotaRog
Gasoline was steady at 3.00 $ / gal. all through the summer & fall last year. It went to 3.00 $ this spring and then dropped to 2.80$ a couple of weeks later. It seems to be stable now.
JMHO, but i think we're still in payback mode. My guess is that total private & business indebtedness across the nation is slooowly shrinking. That should shrink the money supply and make for a stronger dollar ?
It's a hard call on the economy from this little guy's perspective. We had a rough winter and a slow spring. People are still scrounging for money here. It should have picked up by now. I'm hopeful that things will pick up within the next few weeks.
To use a parallel ... think of the farmer that muddled through the winter, paid out all spring to get his fields planted, and then is waiting for his crop to come in. Poor guy is probably down to his last dollar ?
Totally agree on China. They say that the materials we all work to recycle are being used as feedstock for manufacturing. If most of our manufacturing in the states has gone east ... then there's little demand here at home ?
These trade barriers & tarrifs remind me of the old joke where all of the different parts of the body are arguing about who's the boss.:D
Steady decline. Every load I ask about estimates on future prices and it has been a long time since they were optimistic and thought prices would move in a positive trajectory.Quote:
Originally Posted by DakotaRog
Steel down 7.28% from January 1st
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
As P76 predicted, steel prices, at least for lightest stuff, has gotten worse here in eastern South Dakota, down to $10 a ton. P76 and me deal (but at way different levels!) with the same company but in locations 100 miles apart. This company owns most, if not all, the steel yards in nw IA, sw MN, and e SD. I'm not saying its their fault but lack of competition probably doesn't help. There is no mini-mill in e. SD, the closest I know of is (or was) Norfolk, NB, about 120 miles away so no end-users of scrap nearby. The second (new & nice) Soo Foo metro yard is just down the road from me about 5 minute drive. I don't know how their nf metal collecting is going but its looks pretty much a ghost town from the highway. Typically there are 2 piles of steel scrap visible by a ways above their fence. Now barely one is poking its end up. I'm sure they've had to lay people off at that place. Pretty sad times...
I saw an ad on criagslist free category today that was still offering to pick ups scrap metal for free in my metro. Man, that guy must have running boots on to hustle that much to pay for more than his fuel costs in picking up as much as he can. I e-mailed him about 3 weeks or so ago (light steel was $20 a ton then) when he ran this same ad and told him he should at least charge for some gas money, this metro is big enough that if people want stuff gone bad enough, they'll pay a little. He gave me a thumbs up but obviously didn't take the advice. I wonder how long he'll last...? Most of those guys that post on cl doing free pick ups don't last much longer than 3-6 months in the 5 years I've been watching that category.
Wow, that stinks.
Shred has been $90/ton here for the last few months. Was still at that price on 7/8 when I was last at the yard.
You probably have an end-user nearby. I'm glad you guys that still have decent steel scrap prices. Its worth the effort!!
Well, we do have this place 3 miles from the yard with a rail line between them. They must have some orders in.
https://usa.arcelormittal.com/our-op...aking/steelton
Very cool!!! I like seeing Americans re-using American scrap!!!