My concern with the direction of steel prices has lead me to some recent research that suggests that steel will make a big rebound soon. I was all but reassured until my buyer at the local scrap yard said to expect it to get worse before it gets better. Me made mention of scrap yards closing down completely. When steel is worth $40 a ton, what will we do? We've bought our scrap at X and cannot even get back to X. Shutting down till prices go back up?
Im sure there is quite a bit of truth in his prediction of 1982 like prices. But another part of me thinks that this is a risk adverse senior citizen that makes a living buying low and selling high. I do think the prices will recover and hit 200/ton again in August. Its going to be the smart and stable scrappers that make it beyond these next few months.
In 2008 we seen a sharp decline in steel prices followed by a rally that topped never before seen prices. I believe the economy was to blame.
AS the economy has grown back the prices have followed down as a result.
The unfortunate news is I think were about to see another recession. Although not as big as the last but an overall drop in the dollar before picking back up once again.
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Hence, a soon (8/2013) sharp rise (i expect to see 300/ton for a few days) and then leveling off through out the winter around 225/ton
Dont take my word for it. If steel never comes back up, ????
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