what do you guys think prices will recover to?

Afraid it will be like this for at least 14 months... Then maybe prices will increase, and we will never see $.115 a pound for sheet iron again in our lifetime!

Yep, I expect at least a year before Ferrous starts to rise again. NonFerrous will gyrate around a bit and I expect Aluminium will stay the same forever..

Rising energy prices would raise Aluminiums price as its a signifiant cost in Aluminium production. (Alumia is worth about US$350 a ton.)
Aluminium gets 'turned over' quickly and since theres so many new, more efficient Aluminium smelters out there, as well as closed down smelters or ones running at lower capacity, that any rise in price or demand will simply be taken care of by upping production so the price will stay the same.


I am getting the impression that India will be the next 'China' when it comes to buying recycled scrap.
I also think they will want to create jobs there first. So expect good prices for unprepared metals, ie, Fridge compressors, Automobile/truck cores etc, anything that can be repaired or recycled. Quick turnover and weight would be King.

Copper would be in demand as a lot of its going to be made into electrical wire. Any metal thats going into infrastructure and building, Like Zinc.

But I think the demand for Ferrous metal will happen and rise quite quickly once the glut of Iron gets used up.
Possible good money for anyone who can store hundreds or thousands of tons of Ferrous metal somewhere. While getting thru the low price period by buying and selling NonFerrous.
Machinery at the moment will not be replaced with new machinery, but will be fixed or repaired as cheaply as possible to 'just do the job'.
Im already hearing about this with vehicles and such.
But once demand starts up again, investment will happen and that means ca$h to spend and as machinery will be old and not as productive. Brand new machinery will be in demnd, so therefore there will be a big need for raw Ferrous to make the machines that make the machines that make the buildings.

This is just what I'm thinking though
. Just over a year ago I was thinking 'Use Ferrous to pay the bills and overheads, store up the Copper, Brass etc and sell the Aluminium because its price is stable and it takes up space. Then find a great price for Copper etc and sell it in one go.

Selling my Copper in small amounts would have cost me more $ simply because for every sale I work out that I loose 1/2 a Kg.
So sell 300Kg, loose $3. One deal.
Sell 30 x 10Kg, loose 15Kg, = $90. 30 Deals.......
I think I was right, maybe selling a few weeks late, just before this time last year. But a month later would have been far too late to get good prices.

Storing up Ferrous, in theory, and in theory only as we are not big enough to manipulate ferrous prices.... haha!
Will make a sudden demand for Ferrous once the Iron glut is used up, that will cause great prices suddenly for a short amount of time and then it will drop to a reasonable price dictated by Iron ore production and energy prices.

I do not think energy prices will rise much unless something really goes haywire in the middle east or some unknown happens. Nuclear power plants are starting up again and theres a lot more new ones being constructed as well.

Just my impression.......

Matador sold his crystal ball, and being as all the wise men are currently sitting on mountains an airfare ain't cheap during the holidays, I consulted an oracle known as.."the magic 8 ball".

I asked..."will scrap prices go up" it said...."Yes."

I then asked..."Will scrap prices go up soon..?" an it replied..'Ask again later."

I'll consult later with it. Should any of you have pressing concerns before then tho, your welcome to use it.

Welcome to Ask 8-Ball, The Ultimate Online Oracle Yes it's online, you didn't think I actually owned a physical one did you? I bought a slinky instead.

Sirscrapalot - Off to see what fortunes lie in cookies.

Originally Posted by Sirscrapalot

Matador sold his crystal ball, and being as all the wise men are currently sitting on mountains an airfare ain't cheap during the holidays, I consulted an oracle known as.."the magic 8 ball".

I asked..."will scrap prices go up" it said...."Yes."

I then asked..."Will scrap prices go up soon..?" an it replied..'Ask again later."



I'll consult later with it. Should any of you have pressing concerns before then tho, your welcome to use it.

Welcome to Ask 8-Ball, The Ultimate Online Oracle Yes it's online, you didn't think I actually owned a physical one did you? I bought a slinky instead.

Sirscrapalot - Off to see what fortunes lie in cookies.

utt ohh. I asked the 'Magic 8 Ball' "When will copper prices go up?" The black plastic ball replied "better not tell you now"...

That's a gloomy forecast in my eyes. Do I use quotations when quoting a black plastic ball?

You don't HAVE to. It would be kind of proper though, since you know...your quoting. At lest in my mind..but unicorns exist there to, an leprechauns...leprechaun riding unicorns..? Maybe I do need some sleep.

But what do I know about quotes.

Sirscrapalot - I may or may not know a good quote or twenty.

I think (for what it's worth/$0.02), prices are going to do little if any up movement for 12 to 14 months. China is the mystery, only because of their need to consume and produce. With 1,401,586,609 people and this large mass only starting (last 25 years) to join the modern world. In 2009 China passed the USA as worlds largest car market, selling 18 million cars, not even scratching the surface of their overall consumer needs. Balancing their many needs is going to be the "norm" in China for sometime, with lots of hiccups in their economy, when they get the hiccups, other countries that depend on their enormous market for business/trade revenue will cough and choke. I'm only starting to grasp the colossal size of China, presents opportunities, problems and even more unknowns. One thing is certain they can't supply all their people even a toaster for every family, without causing a material shortage of some kind. Kinda of like the old Alka Seltzer commercial, "I can't believe I ate the whole thing". China is going to be doing a lot of consuming of all types of materials, eventually this market is going to get going, setting new highs!

Prices won't go up other than a few bucks here and there until after all of the president stuff is over next year.Then we have that winter but i am saying that spring that they will rise up some.I don't think it will be back to 260 a ton or nothing for a long long time.

All I have to say is...TATER!

Sirscrapalot - Keeping it short an sweet...for now.

More problems for China which may cause a further slow down in construction in China which will likely reflect on the demand for scrap steel. China had been on a frantic construction binge which has slowed.

If the current administration in China is going to attack their environmental problems by shutting down factories he is going to find they have other problems: millions of hungry unhappy Chinese.

I don't see China bringing up the steel market any time soon, perhaps many years for China. Of course the leadership of China can and has done what ever it wants with out any real concern for the environmental bureaucrats from around the world or its own citizens let alone members of this forum. 73 Mike

Shutting down factories is a short-term emergency measure. The Chinese have been making huge investments in natural gas infrastructure to help shift away from the use of coal (which is chiefly to blame for their air quality problems). As always, the problem is money. Coal is much cheaper than cleaner alternatives, although with the current glut in natural gas, the gap has narrowed considerably. Hopefully, concern for the welfare of their citizens will compel the Chinese government to continue investing in cleaner energy. The benefit for the scrapper is that this helps soak up some over-capacity of steel.

I notice that not much is said in the direction of, WHERE does the MONEY/funding/trade, etc. come from?

Not many willing to take a I.O.U. these daze.

The money lenders and power hungry have painted themselves into a corner, simply put.

Think of it as a story from the twilight zone

a world where MONEY has no real value as the collateral is in the minds of the many people.

the flow of the "spice" has died with the worms of the earth.

the birds & bees are next on the list

I find it all interesting anywho as it's much more interesting then programmed media and pro wrestling and what not.

WHERE does the credit MONEY come from for others to buy with?

I myself am interested in buying more then I have the funding for as it's a buyers market and has been for a long time.

when there are LE$$ buyers there are more $ELLER$.

do the maths...

This will be much more long term than prior years. I've been in this for about 11/12 years and have seen 2 droughts in scrap. In other instances it has been a microeconomic issue. This time it's macro. I believe it will be at least a year but probably closer to 2 years before we see steel come back.
Generally the coast lines ship their material overseas. Since the global market as a whole is not buying much, that means the coast scrap companies ship their material inland which basically floods the US Mills. On top of the fact that the US mills order books are not strong, they can now pay what they want for scrap because there is an abundance of supply.