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  1. #1
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Possible Future of Scrap Metal Prices Not So Good

    Just my thoughts on where I think scrap metal prices are headed. I believe that we're in a bubble and I'm afraid it's going to burst soon. Metal prices boomed especially during the housing boom. Re-mortgaged homes became ATM machines for many. Big Box sales of Chinese made goods soared and so did Chinese demand, and to a lesser extent India, need for scrap metals so prices increased to meet the demand.

    Well, the housing bubble bursted. Big Box stores are closing down, malls are emptying. Where does China turn to maintain its production? Europe? No, they're having the same or worse problems than us. On top of this we have high unemployment and we've let industry export all our high paying jobs save a few. Congress is all balled up and can't figure out how to create American jobs (can they spell INFRASTRUCTURE?).

    So, I believe that we're seeing just the tip of a downward slide in metal prices. It is smart of us to find reuse avenues for a lot of what we collect. For instance, people installing home power systems would love some of the heavy copper cable we find. Low voltage DC systems require them. Same for batteries - large batteries are ultra expensive new. Most all utilities have backup power with big exide style battery banks. In my experience they rotate them out way before the end of their useful life.

    While thinking about alternative energy, you might consider Solar PV panels. The cost of new has dropped from around $5 per watt to about $1.50. Used ones that are still in working condition should be very cheap and in demand for a good profit.

    Thinking about Gold too. Usually when the economy does poorly gold does well and that's been the case so far. BUT, this time our on-the-street economy is doing poor but wall street and the stock market are doing very well. Gold historically has been a hedge against poor stock performances and the like. With Wall Street doing well, I'm wondering if we're seeing the beginning of a slide in gold as well.

    Nothing lasts forever. We tend to believe that when in these bubbles that this is the way it will always be. The dotcom bust, housing bust, the 20th century american dream bust are all testament to the ups and downs.



    Just my thoughts. Watcha think?

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  3. #2
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    hey, somebody else from NorCal!

    I vaguely remember scrap prices being really low in the early 2000's long before I was an actual scrapper. Not too long after high school I bought a ford explorer on eBay which ended up being a turd. Scrap yard in Chico only gave me $75 for it in 2004. Nowadays I get $450 or so for those turds. Hope metal prices don't go back to what they were or I'll be looking for new work.

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  5. #3
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CollinsHaulin View Post
    hey, somebody else from NorCal!

    I vaguely remember scrap prices being really low in the early 2000's long before I was an actual scrapper. Not too long after high school I bought a ford explorer on eBay which ended up being a turd. Scrap yard in Chico only gave me $75 for it in 2004. Nowadays I get $450 or so for those turds. Hope metal prices don't go back to what they were or I'll be looking for new work.
    Hey and you're not far away either. Back in the 80s scrap prices were around 15 to 20% of what they are now but living expenses were about 50% of what they are now. It was a lot tougher making a go of salvaging then but you learn to just work smarter, talk to more folks, sell more for reuse. The other side of the coin is that as things get bad or worse more and more folks will be looking for deals - ie. good used stuff - another reason for reuse. I stockpile all the woodstove, lumber, roofing, building materials, plumbing.... that i can get my hands on. Good luck.

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    I think in therory your absolutely right. And if things go the way some forcast and have for a while, water food guns and raw goods to barter and trade with will be the real mediums of exchange. Just my .02.

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    For you Newbies back in the early to mid 90's they used to pay me 15.00 aton for tin and appliances . Thats why I gave it awy to scrappers as I was running a second hand appliance store. Let's Hope things don't return to those levels. However I saw a new chevy volt at the dealer today and it was 41,000.00 as long as cars are terribly overpriced I don't think scrap prices will ever plummet to those levels. I didn't think i would ever see real estate do what its done either.

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  10. #6
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wildbillhappy View Post
    For you Newbies back in the early to mid 90's they used to pay me 15.00 aton for tin and appliances . Thats why I gave it awy to scrappers as I was running a second hand appliance store. Let's Hope things don't return to those levels. However I saw a new chevy volt at the dealer today and it was 41,000.00 as long as cars are terribly overpriced I don't think scrap prices will ever plummet to those levels. I didn't think i would ever see real estate do what its done either.
    I hope you are right, but i doubt it. As far as real estate. It's still got a ways down to go before people with the crummy jobs left can afford to buy them. til then down, down down.

  11. #7
    rbrooks715 is offline Metal Recycling Entrepreneur
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    the chinese, the asian market, is run by folks who are considerably more intelligent than the u.s. they have raised the wages of their citizens 3 times in the last decade. the average worker in china now makes over twice what they did when little bush took office. which gives those workers disposable income to purchase goods and services. china is very restrictive on immigration. they protect their country and citizens. so they do not lose jobs to imported labor. or see money being exported from the country.

    the asian market will slow, as exports drop off, but it will not collapse. a healthy economy requires customers. the chinese have assured that they will have those customers.

    consider how many customers america would have if the current minimum wage was $15/hour and we did not allow company's to hire non-americans. unemployment and under employment would drop. tax revenues would increase from sales which would create more job openings as company's grew. and that would create even more scrap items as employed individuals would replace those older items with new items. western union would see it's money transaction drop by over 50%. that money would then be spent in the u.s. as well.

    there is a lot of support for gold. i doubt if it gets lower than 1500. i expect it to get closer to 2k.

    we could eliminate unemployment and greatly reduce dependence on social services if we repaired or rebuilt that infrastructure. bring back the old wpa and ccc programs. take all of that money we spend in foreign policy and spend it here instead.

    there are viable solutions and this country can fix the problems.

    the problem is the 535 children in washington.

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  13. #8
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Good insights. thanks!

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    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rbrooks715 View Post
    we could eliminate unemployment and greatly reduce dependence on social services if we repaired or rebuilt that infrastructure. bring back the old wpa and ccc programs. take all of that money we spend in foreign policy and spend it here instead.
    Right on! But we have to be sure that U.S. companies hiring well paid U.S. workers get the infrastructure work. I'm thinking the new San Francisco Oakland Bay Bridge. The pieces of the bridge are brought on giant barges from China.

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  16. #10
    divapickers is offline Metal Recycling Entrepreneur
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    I don't how it was down in the States but up here in 2009 we were getting close to $400 a ton for mixed tin. Now it is $265.00 not great better than last year when it was $185.00
    Plus the yard I have been dealing with just bought the gravel yard next door which is huge.
    So I think you are seeing something that they don't
    The Scrap Yard is called AIM American Iron and Metal
    They own a few yards all over the place.

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    I think the biggest thing right now that will impact scrap prices is the end of the war. At my company we noticed the price of metal drop a little and were not sure why.

    On another note, I hope the price does drop again, you will see these new vultures go back into their caves and let the scrapping to the truley dedicated recycler. Back when the price was $20 a ton I was the only scrapper on Craigslist list and I would have a full load of scrap every day of the week. Now that the price is high there are hundreds of ads on Craigslist along with a flagging war and I can barely get a load a month because of the vultures. When the price goes back down and the vultures actually have to work for the money they will be nowhere to be found and back collecting wellfare.

    Ok rant over, you can now enjoy the rest if your program.
    Last edited by CMHN; 01-10-2012 at 04:13 AM.
    CMHN Recycling

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  19. #12
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CMHN View Post
    I think the biggest thing right now that will impact scrap prices is the end of the war. At my company we noticed the price of metal drop a little and were not sure why.

    On another note, I hope the price does drop again, you will see these new vultures go back into their caves and let the scrapping to the truley dedicated recycler. Back when the price was $20 a ton I was the only scrapper on Craigslist list and I would have a full load of scrap every day of the week. Now that the price is high there are hundreds of ads on Craigslist along with a flagging war and I can barely get a load a month because of the vultures. When the price goes back down and the vultures actually have to work for the money they will be nowhere to be found and back collecting wellfare.

    Ok rant over, you can now enjoy the rest if your program.
    I think you are right about the end of the war. I too have done a lot of scrapping at $20 ton iron, 25 cent brass, 60 cent copper... I didn't end up scrapping a lot of the iron because I could sell it as useable but then the economy was better back then too. If I tore down an old warehouse, I'd have all the corrugated tin sold before I ever took it down. Same with water tanks and towers... It's tougher to sell for reuse now, but I think essentials will increase as economy continues to decline though I may end up trading a lot more than selling for cash - barter works too!

  20. #13
    rbrooks715 is offline Metal Recycling Entrepreneur
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    Look at any restaurant or mall parking lot on a Friday night. Parking lots full of new cars. Recession my a@&.<<

    lets first look at all of the closed malls and restaurants. they are no longer in operation. ergo, their are fewer over all customers. then we will look at the % of the total population that the remaining business' represent. is their current customer rate simply a result of of gaining new customers from the business' that have closed? and then we can look at their seating ratios vs gross and net during the rest of their business hours. is friday the only night that is profitable? what is the net rate comparison. how does that compare to the last 15 years.


    Parking lots full of new cars. Recession my a@&<<

    i am curious. do you think the economy is thriving and healthy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rbrooks715 View Post

    i am curious. do you think the economy is thriving and healthy?
    My glass is half full.

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    400/ton sounds nice.

    Hey CHMN, when scrap was 20/ton, were you cashing it in, or stockpiling it for when it climbed back up?

    Same problems here with people spamming CL for metals. Imagine it's a problem every where.

  23. #16
    RecyclingSecrets started this thread.
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoScrapper View Post
    400/ton sounds nice.

    Hey CHMN, when scrap was 20/ton, were you cashing it in, or stockpiling it for when it climbed back up?

    Same problems here with people spamming CL for metals. Imagine it's a problem every where.

    I know you addressed to CHMN but I'll chime in. When I was salvaging (I like this term better than scrapping because it implies reuse over scrap) back when iron was $15 or $20 a ton there was no climbing back up. It had been that price for awhile and no reason to think things would change. Thought I think prices now will fall, I don't bank on it. I don't ever think it makes sense to hang onto things hoping for a price increase if you paid cash money for it. For me, no matter what prices do, I can always make more turning things over as quickly as possible so I have that cash and then some to reinvest in more. Waiting for a 20% price increase that may or may not occur will bring you much less profit than selling $200 worth of stuff today, using that money to buy more tomorrow, selling that... on an on. Cash flow has always been most important to me. If I sat on things the cash would not flow.

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  25. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by RecyclingSecrets View Post
    I know you addressed to CHMN but I'll chime in. When I was salvaging (I like this term better than scrapping because it implies reuse over scrap) back when iron was $15 or $20 a ton there was no climbing back up. It had been that price for awhile and no reason to think things would change. Thought I think prices now will fall, I don't bank on it. I don't ever think it makes sense to hang onto things hoping for a price increase if you paid cash money for it. For me, no matter what prices do, I can always make more turning things over as quickly as possible so I have that cash and then some to reinvest in more. Waiting for a 20% price increase that may or may not occur will bring you much less profit than selling $200 worth of stuff today, using that money to buy more tomorrow, selling that... on an on. Cash flow has always been most important to me. If I sat on things the cash would not flow.
    I kinda see your point in turning items asap.

    I had a pile of copper that would have gotten me another $1,400 to $1,700 had I waited a year/18 months. Percentage wise I don't know what that comes out to. Wishing I had held onto it, but a person can't foretell what the market will do.

    What period was scrap at 20-30/ton? I've only been serious about this for roughly 2 years, and prices have been fairly decent from then till now.

  26. #18
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    In 06/07 I was getting around 300/ton iron and 3.50/lb for copper in 08/09 it dropped to 65/ton and .90/lb but is now back at 210/ton 2.80/lb

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    I was taking them in as I got them, with the price of shred as low as it was, it sure made sense to break down everything you could and sell what you could to make extra money, but it was easier it seamed.

  28. #20
    rbrooks715 is offline Metal Recycling Entrepreneur
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    one of the reasons there is so much competition in the collection of scrap is all of the folks who are laid off found a way to make a few dollars. many of them use scrapping as extra spending money. they are not trying to live off of what they scrap. one of the reasons the price is going down is so many are collecting scrap that do not care what the price is.

    the consumer who used to be your source of scrap has now become your competitor. they no longer generate as much waste, they learned to sell their waste, and now have learned how to collect that waste.

    it has all been created by the lack of jobs.

    does not matter of you liked old bill and his politics. he was right.

    it is all about the jobs.

    put those folks back to work at decent jobs and you will have more waste to collect and less competition.

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