Prices are falling fast for next months ferrous market

[PistoneScrapProcessing]

Hmmm are you talking about something like throwing all my threads together and and calling it PSP's Price prediction or something along that line. I would find with that. I could update it every month. I pretty much always ask people in this industry what the prices seem like they are going to be next month. I can pretty much tell though just by the orders booked for the month what the next month is going to do. Light months are when the prices are down. Heavy months the price is up. Most mid to major yards won't sell when the prices are dropping. They will ship the minimum and then ship heavy when the prices go up. The mills honestly should stop trying to put down pressure on the price. When they do they make the price drop they only get 60 to 70 percent of the scrap they need to melt for the month. Then when it gets toward the end of the month and they realize hey we don't have enough scrap to melt we better raise the price next month so we can get our orders filled or we are gonna be screwed. They then have to raise the price to bring in more scrap. Usually when the price goes up and down like this year has its hard to predict what the mills are going to do. I have been pretty spot on though. I was talking to someone the other day and they already said next month will be light then they will ship heavy again in November because the price has to go back up. Scrap yards are going to stockpile next month then wait for the price to go back up in November. I usually start asking questions about what next months market it going to be right around the 15 of the month because you can look at export prices whether they are sinking, sticking, or falling and pretty much tell which direction the market is gonna go next month. If the mills were smart they would keep the prices from one month to the other even so there isn't so much sea saw action in the market. 30 to 80 dollar swings seem like the normal now. I can remember when a 5 to 10 bucks would be a huge swing in the market back before 02-03. Now there is big big big money lost or made each month. Feast or Famine.

[myekem]

Yes, PSP Price Prediction sounds good. That way its easy to subscribe to the thread and check for updates. So far you have determined my markets before I get them, and where I am small that is a huge help. When you said it was going down $50 I didn't listen and should have, it still hasn't recovered. The price goes up a little bit at a time then WHAM it drops big like 40-50.